What will the ‘B’ word mean for your recruitment confidence in 2019?
Following a recent poll of King Recruit’s clients, the overall message is one of uncertainty and ‘let’s wait and see’.
Most felt fairly ambivalent with a general standpoint of ‘business as usual’.
None of our clients reported an expectation of plans to reduce headcount or hiring in 2019. And in fact, most are predicting good growth, a continued rise in profit and a continued strategy for hiring key staff.
For everyone that remembers trading during 2008 onwards, the sentiment remains steadfast that businesses have the resilience and adaptive ethos to withstand whatever impact the ‘B’ bomb brings.
The positive outlook
The Southwest proved to be one of the most robust regions, post-2008. And already some of the market data is supporting this when it comes to ‘Brexit predictions’.
Whilst in the last 3 months, month-on-month wages fell UK wide due to growing Brexit no deal concerns, the Southwest bucked that trend.
According to Adzuna.co.uk, the job advertising site, South West England saw average advertised salaries shoot up 7.5%, an outlier in an otherwise tepid summer jobs market.
The not so positive outlook
Conversely, according to panel members at a one-off Brexit discussion convened by CIPFA in Bristol earlier in the year, opinion points towards concerns over the impact on the Southwest:
Kate Kennally, chief executive of Cornwall Council, pointed out the South West had a growing number of tech start-ups but it was not good at promoting its own industries.
“We have a big part of the UK that doesn’t have a big voice,” she said.
She added Cornwall voted leave because of “a sense of profound insecurities about public services” and that “this could be a moment where there needs to be a good deal of bravery”.
Kennally also pointed out: “Exeter, Bristol, Plymouth are the cities most reliant on exporting to the EU.”
From a UK perspective, a no-deal Brexit could cause the UK to lose half a million jobs and nearly £50bn in investment by 2030, according to an economic forecast commissioned by the mayor of London, Sadiq Khan.
The worst of the five scenarios modelled – departure in March 2019 with no deal or transition arrangements – would lead to 482,000 fewer jobs across the entire UK and a loss of £46.8bn in investment by 2030, the report says.
What do you think?
We’d love to hear more of your opinions and predictions on this. If you haven’t already responded on the following, please join us in gaining a true picture of what Brexit means for Southwest businesses:
Is Brexit likely to have an impact on your hiring confidence in 2019?
What could Brexit mean for your existing Employees?
Will Brexit affect your business growth or investment in 2019?
Email your responses (in confidence) to MD Helen: email@example.com
We will publish further analysis in our next newsletter.
A useful guide for all HR professionals below:
Top 10 HR questions August 2018 – Brexit and executive pay ratios
The top 10 HR questions in August 2018
1. What impact will Brexit have on employment law?
2. When is it permissible for an employer to terminate the contract of an employee on the grounds of ill health?
3. What impact will Brexit have on EU nationals currently working in the UK?
4. When does the executive pay ratio reporting duty come into force and when are companies required to publish their ratio?
5. If an employee resigns after disciplinary proceedings have been commenced should the employer continue the disciplinary procedure?
6. Where an employee who has exhausted all entitlement to sick pay is to be dismissed on grounds of ill health will he or she be entitled to any payment throughout his or her notice period?
7. Are payments made under a settlement agreement taxable?
8. Must an employer disclose notes and witness statements produced during a grievance or disciplinary procedure if an employee requests them?
9. Can employers still operate a childcare voucher scheme following the introduction of Tax-free Childcare?
10. What records relating to statutory maternity pay must an employer keep?